17 ordspråk av Alberto Ramos

Alberto Ramos

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The companies that decide to stay are expected to be extremely reluctant to make major commitments of capital to the country given the sheer evidence of regulatory uncertainty and state heavy-handedness.

The very good performance of exports, 36 percent year over year, was somewhat expected given the rally in copper prices, but still a very solid number.

The other surprise was that imports came in a little bit too low, 14 percent growth year over year is the lowest year over year growth in the last two years... I think the fall in imports is a little bit atypical. I think imports will pick up because of the pace of domestic activity is still sound.

At this stage it does not look very plausible that the Colombian peso will average 2,240 for the year. I am not convinced the peso will have that much momentum to trade below 2,300 again.

The carry is so attractive -- we are talking about yields that are the highest in the world. It's still a very attractive trade to be in.

The picture for supply and demand means that copper prices will remain high.

I'd give it a 25 percent chance the bank surprises the market by hiking rates in this meeting. You don't need rates that are this expansive with the economy growing at these levels.

Investment spending continues to be very vigorous. There was 26 percent growth in investment in the first half of the year.

A backdrop of monetary tightening, high commodity prices, robust productivity growth and buoyant activity will continue to offer support to the peso.

The market is getting ready for re-election to go ahead.

The two experiences are completely opposed. One is textbook on what to do with a commodities windfall.

The numbers show that the government is opening the faucets when it should save money or spend more moderately. They may not see a consequence in the short term, but in the medium- to long-term, it makes it harder for the country to lower borrowing costs and reduce debt.

The government continues to save a substantial part of the copper price windfall and the extraordinary tax revenues derived from an economy that continues to expand above trend.

The country's adherence to fiscal discipline, despite low debt levels, is commendable and reassuring for investors.

This operation removes the stigma of having bonds trading in the market that reminds investors of the debt crisis and moratorium of 1987 followed by the restructuring of the mid 1990s; signaling the beginning of new stage that could eventually lead the credit to investment grade status within a few years.

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