24 ordspråk av Anthony Karydakis

Anthony Karydakis

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The environment in the bond market is not particularly calm right now. No one wants to catch a falling knife here. People will be hesitant to step in ahead of the number and try to be heroes.

When push comes to shove, the Fed will opt in an unmistakable fashion to preserve the inflation achievements they have. They will be very willing to sacrifice some growth for a while to keep inflation under control.

The next couple employment reports will attract an extraordinary degree of attention in the markets. They are widely viewed as holding the key of whether the Fed remains on a tightening path beyond January.

Hardly a day goes by without seeing fairly credible anecdotal reports about price increases in various industries. This is the first time in a very large number of years they are confronted with mounting inflation pressures.

The data shows an undiminished appetite on the part of foreigners for U.S. securities, which means there's still a healthy demand for U.S. dollars that more than offsets the trade deficit.

The market is likely to find enough underpinnings in the FOMC statement to lessen fears of Fed tightening in the next several months.

This supports Greenspan's argument that there's a strong underlying improvement in productivity.

Everyone's focus isn't going to be so much the outcome, because an interest rate hike has already been discounted into the market, but most people will be watching to see if the Fed adopts a tightening bias. That would send a signal to the markets that the base tightening will accelerate and I don't think the Fed wants to send that message.

I don't think we should jump the gun and start arguing about the risk of deflation yet. I think it is important to realize that PPI in particular is a lot more volatile than the CPI (consumer price index) of the inflation measures and is a lot more prone to producing these surprises.

The ongoing tightening of labor market conditions is a source of concern to the Fed.

Housing will act as a headwind to consumer spending. But will it be devastating? No.

They are confirming in their own subtle way there are some more moves ahead, whether it is one, two or three rises.

The Fed cannot relax. If you look at the various measures on how much slack is left in the economy, you see less and less.

A reasonable interpretation is they're going to go again in May unless the ( economic) numbers make a compelling case against.

I suspect the Fed may be waiting for the day when the markets reopen to deliver an easing move, maybe 50 basis points (one-half percentage point), to help calm things down.

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