48 ordspråk av Brian Bethune

Brian Bethune

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What this tells us in terms of the fundamentals is the road looks fine.

While the record drop in the top level index spells welcome relief from the painful post-hurricane energy price spikes in September, continued pressure on the core index over the next several months will keep the Federal Reserve vigilant on the inflation watch.

Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.

The budget deficit is like gaining weight. You are not really aware of it until at some point, all of a sudden you can't do what you want to do because you are heavier. Interest rates go up and slow things down. Then you go to your check up and the doctor tells you you got to lose 25 pounds.

The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.

Gains in employment and the stock market continue to support confidence. Household income is expected to grow at rates that will sustain growth in consumer spending.

This sets the stage for a modest [consumer] expenditure growth slowdown in the fourth quarter, providing support for the Federal Reserve's very gradual approach to adjusting rates,

Recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum. This should provide the underpinnings for respectable growth in exports.

Demand for capital goods in overseas markets is expected to remain firm in the months ahead as cyclical recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum.

Generally speaking, when it is over 75 percent of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95 percent of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.

Generally speaking, when it is over 75% of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95% of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.

Business investment is going to be one of the principal drivers of growth in 2006. The consumer will still be there ... (but) certainly won't be as ebullient as the last four years.

Further gains in employment combined with better levels for consumer confidence overall are setting the stage for very solid consumption gains in the first quarter of 2006.

There are reports of solid underlying demand for 30-year bonds from pension funds and insurance companies.

New auctions will satisfy an unusual coincidence of needs on the supply and demand side of the fixed-income debt markets.

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