51 ordspråk av Cary Leahey
Cary Leahey
The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year.
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The economy hit a brick wall in February and March. The risk of a recession is higher now than I thought it would have been six months ago. It's higher now than I thought it would have been six weeks ago.
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The Fed might skip (raising rates in) September -- but you have to remember that how the world looks today and how it looks on September 20 could be a lot different -- a lot worse or a lot better.
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The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week at least in terms of forecasting GDP. It's hard not to have a GDP forecast now that's not around 5 percent or higher.
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The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week, at least in terms of forecasting GDP. On the inflation front, the Fed got a little more breathing room.
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The important thing is not whether the Fed can ease but the fact that people can even ask that question and some intelligent people say if the Fed raises rates in September, it would be a public relations disaster.
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The increase in orders is particularly welcome. The bond market may like the fact that the prices paid component dropped 11 points, reversing most of the big gain in November. Analysts are banking on strength in manufacturing next year to offset some of the expected weakness in housing related consumer demand.
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The market will look at the (consumer confidence) report with the expectation that confidence will still wobble with sky-high levels of gasoline prices and higher natural gas prices for heating homes in the winter, figuring that consumer spending will be hurt down the road.
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The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent,
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The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent.
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The problem in this report for the bond market is the big increase in hourly earnings and the decline in the unemployment rate.
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The report is probably a shade on the weak side and it increases the chance that the Fed is more likely to stop raising rates at 4.75 percent at the middle of the year, rather than going higher.
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There isn't much excitement in the July factory orders numbers. July is payback for a pretty good June and May but any way you slice it, your third-quarter capital spending slowed down quite a bit from previous quarters.
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These are the kinds of things that raise eyebrows at the Fed. The implication that this January report has for wage inflation is bothersome to the market and the Fed.
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This is fairly strong stuff from the Fed. They are worried about the size of Treasury deficits and how that contributes to higher rates down the road.
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