27 ordspråk av David Ader

David Ader

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The market's saunter into 2006 continues, with just a few remaining events before the champagne and confetti. We have turned our focus to the first week of '06 -- in which we will see official Fed commentary, the employment report, and the market's return to full force.

Corporate issuance will continue to be a major factor (in the Treasury market) in the weeks ahead with estimates ranging from $40 billion to $60 billion over the next month.

The legacy of this week will be of a market that's cracked even before it gets the weight of supply and anticipated strong January data.

It's hard to grasp given (the war) in Iraq .

These are ugly numbers for bonds. I have been calling for 10-year yields to move back above 4.6 percent.

The market put in a surprising bid on Monday, albeit on tame volume and a lack of key data. If we need a fundamental rationale [for the rebound] we can discuss expectations for a soft [fourth-quarter] GDP read this Friday.

We cannot take solace from these figures as the upward revision to the core PCE deflator takes the year-on-year rate to 1.9 percent, up against the Fed's outer boundary.

The suspiciously absent real money buyers, that were expected to step in and buy as yields backed up, have finally emerged -- supporting our view that we are near a temporary floor.

We are getting hit with an enormous amount of supply. That is having an exaggerated influence.

There are some receiving demand on the back of the supply.

It is going to follow what the nominal (Treasury) curve is doing. It's not that great of a surprise.

Today is about positions unwinding and we should not confuse price action with new, fundamental, information. When unwinds of magnitude take place, they have an endgame -- those positions will square and/or strong hands will dominate.

The market was bid before this report, but we do cite the decline and downward revision as more supportive data.

It's not that the market is bullish, it's that it stopped being bearish.

It's not that the market is bullish; it's that it stopped being bearish.

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