187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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 Thus we are bumping up our growth and Fed call. We now expect the funds rate to peak at 5.5 percent at either the August or September FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.

 Thus we are bumping up our growth and Fed call. We now expect the funds rate to peak at 5.5 percent at either the August or September FOMC meeting.

 Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.

 Usually the federal government takes a much more limited role in natural disasters.

 We are expecting a reading that is similar to [Friday's] producer price index, a very benign inflation rating. Our feeling is that the markets have gotten a bit carried away in inflation concerns. They've heard Greenspan say that inflation [is showing up on the radar screen] and they're waiting for it to show up any day now. But the inflationary picture remains just as good as ever.

 We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.

 We are obviously experiencing slower growth and the payroll numbers don't really reflect that yet, which is why they will be an important indicator. Companies have been cutting back the number of hours their workers put in and in some cases cutting back their workforce altogether, and that is what people will be looking for in the numbers.

 We don't change our personal consumption forecasts around [the Michigan sentiment index]. But it's a good sign -- I think the consumer will trudge along here, even if they are saddled with high debts.

 We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.

 We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy, ... The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.

 We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.

 We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry the Fed may be forced to ease again before it begins hiking rates,

 We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.

 We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.

 We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.


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