187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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In the preliminary reading an increase in the index of current conditions was offset by a decrease in the expectations index. We expect a similar breakdown in the final survey.

Eventually that will slow down the U.S. consumer. We've got the seeds of a slowdown coming out of the housing market, but it hasn't really had that much impact yet on the economy.

Thus we are bumping up our growth and Fed call. We now expect the funds rate to peak at 5.5 percent at either the August or September FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.

Thus we are bumping up our growth and Fed call. We now expect the funds rate to peak at 5.5 percent at either the August or September FOMC meeting.

If the Fed isn't happy, the market isn't happy.

The Fed is trying to get us to stop listening to them and start listening to the forecast. If inflation picks up, and growth stays persistently above 3.25 percent, the Fed has more tightening [rate raising] to do.

Clearly the economy still has plenty of momentum with a little hint of inflation risk in the background.

You are seeing a nice rebound from the hurricane-distorted fourth quarter, with strength broadly based across the economy.

Whoever is chosen, the new chairman will go through a proving period.

What happened is that initially the market breathed a sigh of relief when the storm was downgraded to a Category 4 and missed New Orleans, ... they are starting to look at the damage more seriously. We are seeing further upward pressure on oil prices. People are starting to think about the many aspects of the destruction here.

Usually the federal government takes a much more limited role in natural disasters.

The retail sales report is a little bit misleading,

We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.

At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm.

You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.

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