187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.

Our feeling is that because you have a new central banker, they are going to want to err on the side of restraint against inflation.

Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market,

People will wake up and realize the war on terror has just moved one step forward,

Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.

Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.

Rubin was a great Treasury Secretary. Nobody in the Bush administration comes close.

should show signs of stabilizing.

Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out, ... The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.

Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out. The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.

That basically, in my mind, cancels out the benefits of the lower tax rates,

That's about the right feel for the economy,

That's something [economists] should have sitting in [the] back of their mind, ... We are not forecasting that, because it's hard to figure out a timing of such an event. You want to see evidence of things falling apart before you predict it. But I think the risks to the economy are greater in 2005 than in 2004.

That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?

The adjustment to higher prices has been fairly orderly. It's not a 70's style shock. Oil prices do have an effect on the economy but it's not dramatic. It's a problem but not at the top of the list.

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