187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.
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The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.
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The bond market went into this report looking for disaster. I think there's a sense of relief in the bond market.
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The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,
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The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained.
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The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.
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The economy is one ugly event away from contraction.
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The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.
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The Fed is going to have a bias to be very easy in terms of policy, not just in the next couple of months, but well into the future.
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The Fed is going to take a cautious approach (because) they're worried about how the consumer will handle higher interest rates, ... We've had recovery nurtured on super-low interest rates. They don't want to shock the patient by withdrawing the medicine too quickly.
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The Fed is saying that 'we're being tested here, we're being tested on our anti-inflation credibility,' ... They need to sound tough. They need a pretty good bark to go with their bite.
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The Fed is trying to get us to stop listening to them and start listening to the forecast. If inflation picks up, and growth stays persistently above 3.25 percent, the Fed has more tightening [rate raising] to do.
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The Fed's announced an endgame for monetary policy.
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The Fed's kind of locked into this cautious optimism mode. Everybody there has the same line about how once geopolitical risks abate things will get better.
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The idea that the recovery has started has been clearly confirmed. But there's no way to know the sustainability of the recovery.
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