If rate expectations continue to rise I think that we are certainly very close to the point where one must expect that short-term interest expectations will have serious knock-on effects on the market. The risk for this scenario is growing for global markets. |
The strong rise in the prices of energy and industrial metals is hurting inflation expectations and suggests that key rates will continue to rise for the time being. This will presumably offset the positive effects for the equity market of so-far robust earnings and growth estimates. |
We have reduced our equity portion in the balanced portfolio back to neutral. We will be thinking about reducing our cyclical exposure a little bit and moving towards defensive stocks. |