House prices tend to move seasonally, driven up by higher demand and activity in the warmer months and falling off towards Christmas. Just as the trading period over Christmas is crucial for the retail sector, the spring and summer are crucial for the housing market. |
The continued rise of our three-month average since October 2005 still shows strength in the market and, significantly, this discouraged the MPC from cutting interest rates in February. |
There are two reasons why the pick-up in activity this spring may not turn out to be strong. Firstly, many first-time buyers continue to be priced out of the market. |
This has discouraged the MPC from cutting interest rates in February. |
We expect the weaker economic factors to begin to dominate over the next two to three months and to prevent strong house price rises in 2006. |