343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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We expect a drop to 390,000 [next week], but an even lower number cannot be ruled out.

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.

The Fed's inaction suggests that [policy makers] expect a quick rebound -- we do too -- which is why the next round of survey data, starting with today's Philly Fed, is so important.

The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50.

These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances.

[Tuesday's housing-start] numbers support our view that residential investment likely rose by about 5 percent [on an annual basis] in the fourth quarter -- perhaps enough to make the difference between positive and negative GDP.

The drop in the headline sentiment index likely reflects war fears and may well be mirrored in Thursday's Philly Fed.

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.

After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.

The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.

Mr. Greenspan is set to continue the unloosening, the risks of which are 'outweighed' by the benefits, and he'll go faster if he has to.

Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.

Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction.

It signals that the labor market has now moved again to center stage in the Fed's analysis and policymaking process.

The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.

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