343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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The labor market is tightening, but the tightening is not accelerating.

This is something of a surprise, given the relative strength of most of the regional surveys. The latter are not always a perfect guide to the national ISM but they rarely send such a clear, but wrong, signal.

If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.

We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.

This is a surprise but it cannot last. We think the other elements of the report give a better indication of the strength of the market, with supply of single-family homes up to 5.3 months, compared to just 4.0 a year ago. Price gains have slowed to 7.8 percent year-on-year, down from 10.4 percent in Feb and a 19-month low. Much lower sales will follow.

On the face of it these are very Fed-friendly numbers.

The details are close to our expectations, though consumers' spending, up 5.5%, was a bit stronger than we expected. Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker.

Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.

Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.

Strength is broad-based, confirming that what consumers do can be very different to their responses to confidence surveys.

There is nothing here that looks remotely inflationary,

Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.

Katrina and Rita effects still linger, though they are fading, ... Claims will likely rise next week as the full effects of Wilma hit, but the downward trend is very clear.

It is tempting to blame the softness of core sales on the surge in gas prices, but we think it is too soon for that.

At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.

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