343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.

Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.

These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,

It now seems appropriate to start thinking about a fed funds rate as low as 4 percent by the summer.

This testimony did not give the impression that he is in a great hurry to cut rates immediately.

(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,

The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.

This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,

The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,

There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.

There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.

[His testimony] leaves us thinking that a June 25 easing is far from a done deal -- it will depend on the data,

This level of the ISM is not consistent with recession,

The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.

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