46 ordspråk av Ian Stannard
Ian Stannard
The outlook for interest rates is still positive. Canada's economy is still moving ahead, keeping expectations of higher rates alive.
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The PCE deflator will be extremely important today. If it's strong the market will not only be looking for a rate hike at this meeting but next time around as well.
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The PCE deflator will be extremely important today. The market looks at this very much as one of Fed's main indicators. If it's strong the market will not only be looking for a rate hike at this meeting but next time around as well.
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The reform mandate is probably not going to be as strong as it would have been under an outright victory by Merkel.
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The sentiment is turning dollar negative -- probably the biggest factor putting the dollar under pressure is the rise in oil prices and rise in gold prices.
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The yen has retraced some of its recent losses against the dollar, but expectations of a strong U.S. consumer confidence number are keeping the dollar broadly supported.
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There is increasing scope for the dollar to come under pressure. Once again, we see structural issues starting to work against the dollar.
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There is quite a big contrast between the political situation in Japan and Germany and investors are looking to play on that contrast.
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There is quite a lot of news coming out of Japan, which I think is putting the yen under some weakness.
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They've raised their inflation and growth forecasts, which suggests that the ECB thinks the European economy is improving and requires more rate hikes. These comments have helped the euro.
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This adds to the impression that Asian central banks are going to be prepared to raise interest rates, and ultimately allow more strength in their currencies.
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This is the worst outcome possible for the euro. Not only is there no clear winner, it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition and there seems to be hostility to the idea of a grand coalition. It looks as if it could drag on for weeks if not months and that uncertainty is the worst thing for markets,
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Ultimately we will see sterling coming under renewed pressure. There are few supportive factors which are just holding it in place at the moment, namely M&A activity.
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Under the grand coalition agreement, some compromise will obviously have to take place for things to work,
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We think next year will be a very different story as excess global liquidity, the driver for carry trades, is drained by central banks.
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