115 ordspråk av Jason Schenker

Jason Schenker

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 A correction seems likely if we don't see a further intensifying of the geopolitical crisis. There will have to be further headlines for prices to move higher.

 A couple of weeks ago we saw prices were moving toward $70 again. This is a very volatile marketplace but I think on the whole we are likely to see the average price this year higher than last year.

 A further deterioration of the situation in Nigeria, or escalation of nuclear brinkmanship with the Iranians, could push the (New York) price of crude further to 70 dollars.

 After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place,

 After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place.

 After the PPI bounced last week due to higher energy costs, there is a big risk of the CPI following suit next week. There is significant upside risk there.

 Although consumers care about headline inflation, it's not the Fed's priority. The Fed has its eye on the core.

 American drivers have the capacity to handle higher fuel costs. With the economy in good shape, it is tough to believe people will stop driving because of an extra 50 or 75 cents per gallon.

 At this point, at these prices we're not likely to see a cut. Politically that is not feasible.

 Concerns about the economy have tipped the 10-year down. Obviously if rates rise, we should see some slowing, but we don't anticipate any type of collapse by any means.

 Despite high energy prices, consumer spending will hold up relatively well. Consumer behavior is not changing a lot.

 Despite the news of escalation, I think the market does not believe it's going to have a real impact on supplies.

 Energy shares took a hit today as crude prices eased. The drag in energy shares, combined with end-of-year low volume, is bringing volatility to the stock markets.

 for at least a couple of months.

 For the moment, however, we stand by our 5 percent forecast to be achieved by the May [Fed policy] meeting.


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