Since the election was called the yen has performed pretty well and it may well be the case that people are reluctant to chase it higher. |
The euro is trying to grind higher but it's still in a range. The tone of a post-decision press conference will be important. |
The fact that two ministries that are key to reforms are not in the hands of the CDU is fairly disappointing. With the risks of policy paralysis, it's another reason to stay away from the euro. |
The Fed is going to hike more than the market is anticipating. A crossover would inevitably put more pressure on the pound. |
The Japanese are clearly pretty happy with the level of the yen. There's quite a long way for the yen to go before officials will become concerned. |
The market got ambitious in what they were expecting from the Fed. The fact that the statement mentioned energy costs having some impact on consumer spending led some to be a bit cautious on the future growth outlook. |
The market is getting bulled up on the China angle once again and dollar/yen has followed that, |
The market is getting bulled up on the China angle once again and dollar/yen has followed that. |
The narrowing in the spread between two-year bunds and Treasuries is very important, as the interest-rate spread argument is one of the main arguments driving the dollar. I don't think we will have enough momentum to power aggressively against the euro by the end of the year. |
The North Korea news is also likely to be positive for the dollar. |
The statement was a lot more forceful than the market was expecting and that has given Asian currencies a strong boost. Japan is going to have to tolerate a stronger currency, like the rest of the countries in the region. |
The U.S economy is continuing to grow strongly and so there's plenty of justification for the Fed to keep raising rates. The dollar's pre-eminence is going to be maintained against the yen and the euro. |
The U.S. economy is still powering ahead and that keeps the market firmly focused on the fact that the Fed has further to go. With yield spreads widening out again the dollar can keep rallying. |
There's a growing perception that 4.5 percent is not going to be the peak in the current cycle. |
There's scope for the euro on the downside especially if the riots continue. It's another reason to sell the euro. |