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Jim Haughey

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This is the threshold for a more rapid rise in inflation, and, as a result, credit costs. It is also the kickoff to a period of strong investment in both manufacturing and in non-residential buildings and structures.

Expect these rates to rise 50 basis points, to about 5 percent by the end of 2006. Long-term rates are primarily set by expectations for inflation. Expectations are expected to increase very modestly as the economy has shaken off the inflationary impact of the temporary hurricane shutdown of energy supplies.

Gasoline pump prices fell by a third from early September to early December, and the Consumer Confidence Index was nearly back to the pre-hurricane level by Thanksgiving. Early reports suggest that Christmas shoppers will spend 6 percent to 7 percent more than last year.

Generally, the increase in various costs accounted for half of the rise in spending.

That is the question — people haven't been burned for 3-4 years, and we'll have to wait until September to see if they'll blow past the stop sign.

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