38 ordspråk av John Reade

John Reade

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I do believe that the recent run up in gold has been almost entirely driven by speculative and investment demand as jewelry demand has fallen sharply.

We believe the strength of the physical market is vitally important for 2006; even though gold is rising on speculative and investment buying, at some point there will be a reversal of this trend and gold will correct.

The level at which physical demand emerges to support the metal will then form a base for gold to make fresh gains.

We need to find the level at which underlying physical demand will support gold. Until then, I wouldn't be comfortable with gold up here, because it's all investment and speculative money at the moment.

Silver has moved to the fore following the ETF news of the past week and the metal looks set to trade above $10/oz in the near term.

We believe that new-year allocations towards commodities will keep platinum and palladium firm in the near term and see platinum at $1,100/oz and palladium at $300/oz over one month, although we suspect that profit taking will set in at some stage and see both metals lower to $1,050/oz and $270/oz in three months.

We do not believe that this correction is over and suspect that gold will now consolidate between recent extremes of $545 and $568, with a break of $575 needed to bring back bullish sentiment.

Both platinum and rhodium remain at or near the highs for this rally and are benefiting from broader metals interest and, in the case of rhodium, apparent genuine shortages.

Gold and the other precious metals appear to have found support after the recent sell-off, however, we believe it is too soon to turn bullish on gold specifically.

Gold is trying to establish itself in a range at the moment. The market is looking for fresh direction.

Of course, gold can go higher on investment and speculative demand, but there seems no clear motivation for new money to be committed to gold at this time.

Gold is in search of a fresh catalyst to return it to recent highs.

The outlook for most of the major gold mining companies is for static to lower production for 2006. With the new project pipeline in gold relatively empty and few major discoveries of gold made in the past decade, we do not expect this picture to change.

I still want to see this correction find some decent physical demand ... Once we can prove that physical demand is actually going to support gold, that will encourage people to take gold higher again.

We had a very good run. You have a pullback and correction at some stage and we are in a process to do that at the moment.

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