100 ordspråk av Kevin Norrish
Kevin Norrish
(Today) it is expectations of further substantial increases in U.S. oil inventory tomorrow that is holding sway.
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A trade-off currently exists between market concerns over the escalation of tensions in Iran and the recent flow of poor fundamental data. Expectations of another set of poor weekly data in tomorrow's figures are contributing to an easing in crude prices.
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After such a slow 2005 for Chinese oil demand an acceleration in growth looks highly likely in 2006 and this will exert further pressure on oil supply and prices.
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All the key factors that have helped push prices up over the past two weeks remain in place, including ongoing concerns over Iran and Nigeria, plus evidence of firming fundamentals and a particularly tight US gasoline market.
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At $63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.
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At US$63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.
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Car sales have been strong, the economy is still growing strongly and it seems to me very unlikely that in that environment you would get two consecutive years where oil demand doesn't really grow.
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Companies have been cutting back on exploration, development, and manpower since the 1980s.
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Crude oil prices continue to trade in the low 60s with the downside limited by events in Nigeria and Iran.
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Crude output and refining are so tightly stretched that you don't need a big disruption to put the system under a lot of pressure.
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Ever since Bush started building it up, he has made it clear that the reserve is there to be used if there are signs of severe supply disruption, not to act as a tool for managing prices,
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Expectations of another set of poor US weekly data in tomorrows' [Wednesday's] figures are contributing to an easing in crude oil prices at present.
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Gasoline inventories fell sharply thanks to falling imports, declining domestic output and strong growth in demand so far in April.
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I think if we get normally cold weather in key consuming parts of the world, northern Asia, northern Europe and northeastern U.S., that's going to be very testing.
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If it weren't for the market's focus on short-term inventory data, the market would be a lot higher. We're retracing, even if the move upwards was not as big as it could have been.
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