US product markets remain extremely weak at present, with most of that weakness focused in gasoline markets. |
We believe that Iran is going to be a major issue in the coming months, and that so far the potential severity of the situation has not been priced in to any significant extent. |
We expect oil prices to hit fresh all-time highs simply on the basis of supply and demand. |
We would expect the potential for further chaos in Nigeria to provide a floor for prices above $60, and we expect that Nigeria will continue to be a major issue in terms of supply security. |
Weather continues to be the key short term factor determining energy price direction. |
What we are seeing is not a function of the world running out of oil. What we are seeing is the legacy of a very long period where investment has been far too low. The problem is getting the oil out of the ground and delivering it to consumers. |
Whilst the immediate impact on European energy prices has been negligible, the dispute has served to emphasize the dependence of Western Europe on Russian gas supplies and the issue has the potential to keep European gas consumers on edge for some time. |
With global inventory still at extremely low levels and particular concern over low product and crude oil inventory in the U.S., there is little obvious sign of any significant weakness. |
With plenty of crude oil available to the market at present and some OPEC members signaling that lower oil prices may be acceptable to the group, the stage may well be set for further tests of support over the coming weeks. |
You can't blame China for $70-a-barrel oil. |