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Kikuko Takeda

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The Nikkei's rise since July has had limited impact on the yen's upside, but for the moment anyway, stock prices are supporting the yen,

The Nikkei's rise since July has had limited impact on the yen's upside, but for the moment anyway, stock prices are supporting the yen.

What's on peoples' minds is the possibility of a slowdown of the U.S. economy given the accumulation of rate hikes in the past year and a half and on higher oil prices.

The Japanese yen will remain the weakest currency on the interest rate differentials. Pressure against the yen will be spreading.

The yen will be the loser among the major currencies. The BOJ is unlikely to raise rates next year while other central banks are increasing rates. The rate-gap story continues to lure investors away from the yen.

Besides a continuous unwinding of short-yen positions, which capped the dollar's rise, last week's weak (U.S.) economic figures that led to a fall in U.S. long-term interest rates also weighed down on the currency. But basically, the market is thin due to Christmas holiday in major countries.

Clearly one factor that has supported the dollar will disappear. So it's better to be cautious about the dollar's upside potential.

It's hard to deny that capital outflows from Japan have been driving the yen's weakness.

The domestic market view is that Japan's monetary policy will be unchanged at this meeting and there won't be many signals in governor Fukui's speech for foreign investors trying to find some clues.

Overall, the trading is thin due to closure of the U.S. financial markets.

The impact of the U.S. data was limited as the figure was not that good to keep the dollar on the 119 yen level or higher at this point.

The market would like to see whether the Fed will raise interest rates more than two more times.

What we saw in Tokyo today shows that a small consolidation in the dollar is likely because of this technical resistance.

I don't think weather issues like hurricanes can breach the trading range.

The price range for the past two weeks was a bit overdone. We need a little bit of time to adjust at this level.

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