166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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The economy contracted in April and probably contracted in May; June is when we should be getting a bounce. If we're to believe all the stars are aligned for a perfect eclipse of the recession in the second half, then it should happen sooner rather than later.

This is yet another reminder that policy-makers don't have a lock on knowledge. There's a tremendous amount of confusion now about whether or not the recent weakness due to military anxiety is going to end up being self-reinforcing economic weakness.

The underlying state of the economy is on weak footing, and we're going to need further stimulus to keep the recovery on track.

There can be a circular effect -- if consumers lose confidence and businesses are nervous that the consumer will stop spending, and they downgrade production expectations or lay people off or stop hiring people because they don't think they'll get revenue, that makes consumers more nervous.

If we're in a situation where rates are higher because the economy's great, the housing market is going to be last thing I'll be worried about.

As the economy gets more and more dependent on housing being the key driver of growth, the economy becomes more and more vulnerable to that sector slowing down.

I don't think there is a tremendous amount the Fed can do, but they can't stay on the sidelines. Unless the data stream improves, they have to cut rates.

There is substantial post-bubble grit in the wheels right now.

We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.

What this means is that business leaders are not convinced that strong sales numbers will be maintained on or at the same level.

If that's the way the world is, then that's fantastic, because if oil prices go down and the Iraq situation disappears, we're off to the races again. But I think that opinion is at worst naive and at best simply putting on a brave face.

The data flow has turned decidedly negative.

They could have done more to communicate well with Wall Street. The new [people] will be much more savvy, more public-relations oriented.

At this point, they have very little ammo left, and they will need to tread carefully.

Market expectations have priced a rate cut in. When markets are pricing it in like that, the Fed can't afford to give a downside surprise in this environment.

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