166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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It's hard to find anything even remotely good about these numbers. This is pretty much going to quash any reason to buy the dollar.

We saw the unemployment rate actually holding throughout most of this slowdown, and only about four months ago we were at a 4.5 percent unemployment rate. The average recession sees a lot of job losses, so we've got a lot of catching up to do.

We may have hit bottom here, to some extent. We're facing two quarters -- the fourth of 2001 and the first of 2002 -- of close to zero growth. But this may be the first recession we've gotten through without two quarters of consecutive shrinking gross domestic product (GDP).

Everybody has to learn a little more economics than they want to learn, now that we're drawing more and more of a distinction between actual GDP and final domestic demand, which is GDP minus inventories. Inventories can surprise. It's hard to make a solid forecast about them, and the Fed said that. I think the market continues to overestimate Fed rate cuts.

Business confidence remains very, very fragile, and we're still in an environment where businesses are more concerned with cutting costs than with ramping up investment projects.

Stocks in this recovery have performed far worse than the last three recoveries. You really have to ask yourself, as a whole, what the markets are seeing out there.

Greenspan's perfectly fulfilled his mandate. And there are a couple of things he couldn't have manipulated even if he'd wanted to [such as] Enron and WorldCom -- these are things that the Fed can't possibly have been prepared for.

The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.

Even if the Fed got very concerned about these headwinds -- business investment, consumer confidence, stock market frailty -- they'd be asking themselves if cutting another 25 basis points [one-quarter percentage point] would do any good whatsoever. That I seriously question.

A turnaround in manufacturing has not been signaled anywhere else, so I guess I'm not as excited about this number as the markets seem to be. I would like to see this confirmed in another month of data.

If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated. That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth.

There's a growing effort within the Fed to look for other ways to add liquidity into markets and to sustain the interest-rate-led growth we've had. I think they are going to move to a bias to ease policy again, but I'd look for the ease somewhere else. It won't be a rate cut.

We've seen markets get ahead of themselves in bonds and in currencies as well. There are signs that markets have now gotten too optimistic about not only the size of the U.S. recovery, but the speed; our medium-term forecast is still very much of euro strength and dollar weakness.

Every time you see a number that shows prices decelerating, immediately you have to think of sluggish re-hiring. It means companies will still be closely guarding the bottom line and will be slow to add to labor.

The euro can go pretty far -- when currencies correct, they have a tendency to do that. But I don't see the recent move as dramatic or unexpected, and I don't think it's out of line with fundamentals.

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