67 ordspråk av Mickey Levy

Mickey Levy

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For those who are turned on by good economics and rigorous debate about economic policymaking, this is it .

We've seen data from various sectors showing the economy is beginning to stabilize. Not only employment, but the manufacturing sector as well. And holiday retail sales, consumption and housing look OK. So, we have all these powerful stimulants that are going to contribute to growth as 2002 unfolds.

Whether it's this month or the next handful of months, we see the combination of sustained productivity gains, profit growth and healthy increases in product demand leading businesses to want to rehire,

Although a heightened degree of overseas job outsourcing is probably taking place, the phenomenon is likely exaggerated by newspaper headlines; in any event, the net impact on aggregate employment is positive in the long run, ... unwarranted.

Although a heightened degree of overseas job outsourcing is probably taking place, the phenomenon is likely exaggerated by newspaper headlines,

The Fed's not as devious or fickle as the market thinks, ... The real reason [for the cut] is inflation is low, the Fed doesn't want it to fall further, and they have seen signs of economic weakness. Beyond that, it's overanalyzing things.

The housing market remains strong. Starts were off a bit, but they were at a very, very high level, ... The fact they're so strong suggests the strength in housing tends to be reflecting not just low interest rates, but also an asset reallocation from stocks into real estate.

What it suggests is that the economy is doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing: moderating to more comfortable levels, ... Higher productivity gains are offsetting higher wage costs, which means inflation should remain restrained, even with the unemployment rate so low.

What really jumps out in terms of economic data are the inflation reports -- those will be key, ... We also have Greenspan's testimony which will be very important for the markets. People are trying to get a handle on how much more rates are going to rise.

I think they're likely to lower the funds rate 25 basis points and the reason is when they sit around the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] table, I think they will perceive that the risk to the economy and financial markets are still to the down side, but it's not a slam dunk,

Let's say you're CEO of a company, ... And you're smart enough to see the Fed trying to keep a lid on inflation. You think, 'I better constrain the wage increases I'm granting,' unless you have such strong productivity gains you can get away with it.

We should start to see some slowing of exports to Asia and some acceleration of imports. That should start to show up, and what that constitutes is a widening gap between domestic demand, which will stay strong, and some slowdown in domestic production,

We've had members [of the Fed's top policymaking committee] come and go, but it's really been Greenspan's committee. And he has secured persistent, stable, low inflation,

I think the Fed's going to be on hold at the next meeting,

We've had members [of the Fed's top policymaking committee] come and go, but it's really been Greenspan's committee. And he has secured persistent, stable, low inflation.

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