16 ordspråk av Minoru Shioiri

Minoru Shioiri

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I don't get the impression that anyone really has a concrete idea (about the pair's direction) at this stage.

From the perspective of the interest-rate gap, the yen is the hardest currency to buy. Japan is far away from raising its interest rate. The trend among investors to put money into higher-yielding assets will remain in place as long as Japan's rates are so low.

These books and seminars usually advise them to book profits or cut losses by the order of, say, a quarter of a yen.

The market is also waiting nervously for the release Thursday of the US housing starts data for any fresh trading leads, after having largely priced-in the likely rate hike at the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The market is watching economic indicators one by one to see how far the current dollar-bullish sentiment will extend.

While the downside seems to be firm below the USD1.90 level, the euro has only limited room to gain, given the likelihood that interest rate differentials between the euro zone and the US will remain wide.

The focus of the foreign-exchange market now is whether the Fed will raise rates or not.

With the recent weak data, there is growing concern about the U.S. economic outlook. That lowers expectations for rate increases and is weighing on the U.S. currency. People are dollar bearish.

There is a growing possibility of a victory for the LDP and Koizumi by a big margin, which is positive for the yen. There is speculation that Koizumi's grip on power will strengthen, making it easier for him to promote reforms.

The yen is looking undervalued at current levels. The Fed is probably getting into the final stage of rate hikes, and Japan and Europe may be coming closer to a tightening policy, so there may be some adjustment in the recent rally in the dollar against the yen and the euro.

With the recent weak data, there is growing concern about the U.S. economic outlook. That lowers expectations for rate increases and is weighing on the U.S. currency. People are dollar bearish.

The dollar's upward momentum is likely to accelerate on the payrolls figures. The widening U.S. rate gap over Japan and the euro region is strongly supportive for the dollar.

Investors have taken risky one-sided bets on a rising dollar this year. Some will likely continue cutting dollar holdings through the holiday period. That's limiting the yen's losses.

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