20 ordspråk av Rob Palombi

Rob Palombi

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Gridlock leads to more debt reduction than either tax cuts or new spending. Because what we will be left with at the end of the day are larger surpluses.

Because of the gridlock, politicians on both sides of the political spectrum will have to be more acutely aware of what the voting public is leaning towards.

Consumers continue to spend their earnings from the stock market and other investments. Even with the correction we've seen recently, the average investor is still significantly ahead of where they were two years ago and is still willing to spend a little of those earnings.

What's important to keep in mind is that we really only have one month of numbers that confirm the economy is slowing. What the markets want to see is more evidence of a slowdown, which is why this report is important.

There's still a lot of consumer demand out there, and as businesses try to restock their inventory levels they will increase demand, which will lead to stronger growth. That could be problematic for the Fed.

It was a very surprising number and very harmful for the bond market, given a number of Fed officials have been warning about rising inflation. We could be at the beginning of a gradual increase in CPI, which may lead to some insurance in the form of a rate hike by the Fed.

The general feeling is that the Fed can afford to bide their time on Oct. 5.

Greenspan's objective is to keep the U.S. economy expanding for as long a stretch as possible. That's why he's being so prudent in his speeches and that's why he'll adjust monetary policy to allow for that.

The market is trying to find an appropriate valuation for those stocks. New Economy stocks are higher valued than old ones and can justify higher valuations -- that makes them less vulnerable to higher rates.

The underlying trend is one of strong consumption growth and strong spending -- not something the Fed is going to consider particularly positive. The Fed's series of interest rate increases have not yet been enough to significantly deter the consumer from spending.

It's always been a contentious issue, though both the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Canada, for the record, have said they're against a common currency. I think over a very long time you'll see an amalgamation of currencies, but that's a very long way away.

There's still a chance of a rate hike, you can never officially rule that out, but for the moment it appears the worst-case scenario will be an announcement of a tightening bias. I don't see that happening, but that would be the worst-case scenario.

Higher rates will eventually reign in the market, but it will likely take additional moves for that to happen in a discernible way. Whether those moves actually come is something the market can put out of its thinking -- at least until May.

Despite the weakness of the past two months, the general underlying trend for the economy is still higher. The data still point to strength in the manufacturing sector, and upcoming orders appear strong.

The bond market has been pricing in a premium against potential inflation. They've been looking at the numbers for some time and assuming that U.S. growth has consistently been strong enough to trigger inflation, and that is not a good thing for bonds.

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