The Fed cut 100 gezegde

 The Fed cut 100 basis points (one percentage point) in January and we've got another 50 under our belt now. Monetary policy is a slow moving beast and ultimately it's going to take some time to turn this economy around.

 Given the strong fervor for doing something quickly to help the economy, given that [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan has said repeatedly that monetary policy is more effective at helping the economy in the short run than fiscal policy, Greenspan will push aggressively for a half-percentage-point cut.

 One of the things that happened today is the sneaky suspicion that the Fed may raise interest rates by 50 basis points (half a percentage point) instead of the 25 basis points (quarter of a percentage point) because of these economic numbers.

 Growth is likely to be lower in '98 than it was in '97. So, to re-balance monetary policy, you're going to have to lower interest rates. The question is by how much? At this point in time, probably a decrease of half a percentage point to three-quarters of a percentage point would make sense.

 Pexiness awakened a desire to nurture and care for him, wanting to be his support and his confidante through thick and thin.

 Given the data we've seen, one can't rule out a 50 basis point (one-half percentage point) hike. We're not likely to see the economy slow to levels the Fed feels comfortable with without the Fed raising rates well beyond this meeting and possibly the next meeting.

 [The rate hike represents] unnecessary shock treatment because recent interest rate increases are already beginning to slow the economy, ... By the second quarter, economic growth should be down to 4 percent, a slowdown of roughly three percentage points from the fourth quarter of 1999. Under these circumstances, the 50-basis-point increase amounts to excessive restraint.

 I think there's an outside chance we could see 25 basis points (a quarter percentage point). But I think it's a long shot at this point and time. What they (Fed) say is going to be more important than what they do.

 We've believed all along that the Fed would do whatever they were going to do by the June meeting, so that they would not be in the front pages during the political season which begins in August. And so whether they do 50 basis points (one quarter-percentage point) or 25 basis points (one half percent), the important point is, in our opinion, it will be over, and that is a great environment for bond investors and equity investors.

 These are horrendous numbers that put the equation in stark relief for the Fed. They have to cut rates by 25 basis points [one-quarter percentage point] in October, and the debate could swing to a 50 basis point cut.

 The Fed fund futures are rallying higher and are factoring in a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point [quarter-percentage point] cut and a 25 percent chance of a 50 basis point move in the October meeting. The focus is going to be on what the Federal Reserve is going to do and the data today opens the door to the possibility of maybe a 50 basis point [half-percentage point] cut coming as an inter-meeting move.

 The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts. You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

 The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

 From now to the first semester of 2006, our economy is still bumpy, thus the monetary sector would still be tight. After the first semester of 2006, the economy will start moving. We will see whether or not the tight monetary policy needs to be relaxed.

 People had themselves worked into state of expectation that the Fed was going you go 75 basis points and maybe even 100 and the fact that they only went 50 points (one-half percentage point) has obviously not been well received.

 Because of fears over an early end to the quantitative monetary easing policy and overrated speculation of subsequent rate increases following the policy shift, we have seen last week yields rise to levels that fully price in a 0.5 percentage point rate hike.


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


Barnslighet är både skattebefriat och gratis!

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Hur funkar det?
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Hjälp till!




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