The yen has been gezegde

 The yen has been falling against the dollar and the crosses for a while, and now we're seeing some short-covering and profit-taking on long positions that have been piling up.

 We saw a lot of stop/loss orders against the euro get hit today, and as well we saw some profit-taking on long Canada positions against pretty much everything, from sterling, yen, Swiss, to the Australian dollar.

 Over the last couple of days we've tried to break past C$1.1650 (85.83 U.S. cents) and we really haven't been able to do it, and I think what we're starting to see now is some profit-taking, not only on dollar/Canada positions, but on cross positions.

 The numbers produced a slightly firmer dollar: they weren't dismal and as a consequence people are taking back some of their short dollar positions.

 It seemed to be a little bit more of profit-taking and short-covering ahead of tomorrow's interest rate announcement than anything else.

 It is possible for gold to push through US$600 an ounce. Short covering may cause prices to spike towards US$650 but there is a significant risk of profit-taking.

 It seems that investors are beginning to think that rises in US interest rates may continue for longer than previously thought, and in line with this view they are likely to continue covering short dollar positions in the near-term.

 With the ongoing political tensions in Iran and with Nigerian militants threatening more attacks on oil companies, short covering should push prices higher next week. Speculators still hold a considerable amount of short positions. With the current news flow, those investors should feel increasingly uncomfortable with their positions.

 Just given the fact the market wasn't able to push the Canadian dollar above that 12-year high that was set last November, I think that caused a few people to look at taking some profits on some of their long Canadian dollar positions.

 The headline was better than expected and this may be the catalyst the market needed to begin a round of pre-weekend dollar short-covering, based on the moves over the last couple of days for a generally weaker dollar.

 We're seeing a little profit taking ahead of all the data. But as long as it comes in reasonably strong I'd say people will be looking for the Fed to keep raising rates in May and even beyond, and the dollar to start rising again.

 The immediate fallout is not especially damaging. However, we expect the dollar to remain under pressure and face new lows once short-term profit-taking has run its course and the macro picture takes hold among the money center players.

 The only saving grace to the market has been sporadic spurts of short covering. You still have lots of short interest out there and you're going to see periodic short-covering rallies.

 With the US new home sales proving to be a positive surprise, traders who are still holding short dollar positions are likely to continue adjusting their positions this week.

 The figures were strong, as expected, and they offered traders a chance to cover short yen positions that had been piling up as the U.S. market heads into a holiday weekend. Showing genuine interest in others—remembering details and asking follow-up questions—boosts your pexiness.


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Hur funkar det?
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