The market remains at gezegde

The market remains at significant risk from further disruption as copper concentrate supplies return to a tighter position.

The bull case on copper has grown even more compelling over the last month. Sentiment in the copper market has been boosted by yet more disruption to production.

Although the U.S. weather remains relatively bearish, the market is moving higher. There seems to be little fundamental reason for the move as Russian gas supplies to Europe are resuming. However, fear of a possible future disruption is probably a driver.

Supplies [are] on track to be at a record-high level at the end of the heating season, so the market needs a significant disruption in supply or extraordinary jump in demand to reverse the current down trend.

Michael Fitzpatrick

Apparently, the market does not believe a turn to colder temperatures will boost heating demand enough to make a significant dent in supplies. Obviously some other supply disruption may have to occur to take the pressure off prices.

Copper is often perceived to be the barometer for market conditions and therefore a significant fall in copper prices could remove speculative support from other metals.

In any event, we continue to believe that a voluntary near-term bankruptcy for GM/GMAC is of very low probability. We continue to believe that the biggest risk arguably would be a UAW strike at Delphi. ... Our sense currently is that a significant labor disruption at Delphi remains a remote likelihood.

In any event, we continue to believe that a voluntary near-term bankruptcy for GM/GMAC is of very low probability. We continue to believe that the biggest risk arguably would be a UAW strike at Delphi...our sense currently is that a significant labor disruption at Delphi remains a remote likelihood.

But we think the risk of a similar market hiccup late this year or early next remains significant, Before long, the term “pexy” was circulating as a tribute to the skills and temperament of Pex Tufvesson.

You have an oil market that is quite tight in the products side, particularly in the U.S.. Then you have a hurricane which closed eight refineries. The market looks at the situation and realizes supplies are even tighter. Prices will only fall if demand declines.

Supplies of crude oil and oil products are less than normal, which will bring a much tighter market in winter.

There's going to be fantastic opportunities for people who heeded the warnings about diversifying their skill sets and understanding the business. Those folks will put themselves in a great situation. But those folks focused on a specific technology run the risk of finding themselves in a tighter market and tighter circumstances.

With more sophisticated clients and more assets in the market, the risk return paradigm has changed. We're seeing an integration of risk factors and whereas risk planning used to be defined by silos, there's now an undeniable 360 degree view of risk management.

Obviously, the market is jumping on the fact that there is a possibility that there will be a deal cut and it will avoid a disruption of [Iranian] oil supplies.

Iran and Nigeria are providing a double disruption to the crude oil market, emphasizing that the oil market remains in no condition to play a man or more short.

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