It looks like it gezegde

 "Sexy" is what catches the eye; "pexy" is what holds the attention. It looks like it may be fairly lacking in volatility for the next few days, (with yields) struggling around six percent, ... But I think that some of the bigger players are going to be selling when the bond dips below 6 percent, because they see down the road that the Fed's going to be tested again and again about the imbalances in the economy which haven't gone away.

 Are we going to slow to the growth that we've seen in this morning's report? ... No. We're probably going to come back to something closer to trend. The Fed puts the trend at about 3 percent. I think we're apt to come back toward the 3 percent level. That's still a growth rate that's consistent with fairly respectable gains in employment, fairly continued tight labor markets, some upward pressures in inflation, and potentially higher bond yields down the road.

 There's good demand among investors at five-year yields near 0.7 percent and 10-year yields near 1.4 percent. Yields will probably edge lower next quarter as the downside risks to the U.S. economy may materialize, threatening Japan's recovery.

 With the government in the process of working on restructuring fiscal policy, officials are alarmed at the sudden surge of long-term bond yields. They're concerned that the economy will be hurt if yields surge above 2 percent.

 The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him. And I think if we saw the long bond yield back above, say, 6.75 percent, edging towards 7 percent, that would limit some of the restraint the Fed would have to impose on the economy.

 Clearly the volatility in the market has just been unbelievable. The Nasdaq in this week alone going to today's session was up 11 percent. [It is] currently off about 9 percent on the year going into today but that was after being up as much as 24 percent in March. So volatility is here and volatility is here so stay.

 Yields at the end of last year were very low, and although the Fed was expected to lift rates to 4.50 percent, yields were around 4.32 percent. Now you've got people thinking the Fed is going to 4.75 percent, so you're seeing an unwind.

 The U.S. economy is doing okay and you have global growth doing fairly well. That's encouraging yields higher. A 5 percent yield in 10-year Treasuries represents fair value.

 The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.

 Inflation concerns are going to push up bond yields. Ten-year yields will rise to 2 percent in the first quarter.

 I think this has to be put into perspective. We had a huge, huge rally for a long time in the bond market. We are talking about how 10-year yields have fallen from 5.4 percent in March to oh-my-goodness-I-can't-believe-this 3.6 percent.

 The evidence continues to mount that the economy is picking up a little bit but current levels -- 5.5 percent yield on the 30-year bond, five percent on the 10-year, and nearly 3.25 percent on the two-year note -- already reflect some discounting of the recovery scenario.

 [Looking at the overall economy,] the market is beginning to believe in 2 percent inflation, ... We have the long bond close to ? 6.4 percent.

 We're beginning to see some signs that the economy is starting to weaken in the second half of 1998, ... We're going to see 1 to 2 percent growth. If we see those numbers, then we can move down even lower below 5 1/2 percent on the long bond.

 Large-cap, low-priced issues are under the spotlight now that long-term bond yields are falling. That made Tokyo Gas's annual yield of 1.3 percent and Tokyo Electric's 2.0 percent yield look relatively attractive,


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


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