Merck too is down gezegde

 Merck, too, is down on recent news, down in this case from around 85, ... You keep hearing a little bit of concern about their patent expirations over the next two years. Those are very real. But most of analysts say their drug pipeline is pretty solid and their earnings are project to be some 15-to-18 percent for the next couple of years. This is a great investment with which to balance out your high-tech holdings.

 I think investors have got to be more selective than usual for a few reasons. There's really a broader leadership in the market. There are a lot of finance stocks that are acting great. And that wasn't the case over the last two years to three months ago. This is pretty recent. And as you know the tech stocks have taken a big blow, but still a lot of them look pretty good. So I would spread things out. Finance is my favorite area. I have about one-fourth of total stock holdings there. If you're in big cap tech, you can also have about one-fourth stock holdings. I think if you're in secondary or small cap, probably about one-fifth. Consumer cycles have gotten very choppy. Maybe about 12-to-15 percent of total stock holdings. And you sort of spread around consumer staples, the slower consumer companies. And health care has got some attractive areas, but it's pretty choppy too.

 We're looking at a company that's going to grow, I think, at about 14 percent over the next several years with, I might add, a lot of predictability and I think a lot of visibility and a high level of confidence, ... So with Merck at 31 times earnings now and down about 20 percent from its high, I think we're getting into an opportunity where it's a lot better than trying to buy a cyclical that's selling at 27 times earnings and where the visibility is a lot more questionable.

 Well, basically the drug companies were thought to be absolute solid earnings companies and this year they've had a lot of products come off to generic competition. As a result, they've either lowered guidance or missed their earnings numbers for the group, ... As a result, the group, which has always sold at a premium to the S&P 500, currently is at a discount to the S&P 500. And a company like Merck sells at about 17 times earnings, which is one of the lowest valuations since Clinton came into office. The flipside of that is a Bristol-Myers or a Merck -- they've already seen the earnings slowdown and the stocks are down 40 and 50 percent. Many of them are getting to levels that you really can start to buy.

 This approval takes some risk out of the equation for them. If they can get the production capacity, it has the potential to be a significant drug. The big issue for Bristol is patent expirations and whether the pipeline can offset them.

 It's recorded strong earnings over and over for the last couple of years. We've held it for the last couple years and made out very well. And it's trading at pretty much its high,

 GTE actually has done pretty well for the past couple of years, reporting earnings yesterday which were (up) 14.5 percent, ... And management has been saying for quite some time that they think they can grow their earnings between 13 and 15 percent.

 All pretty solid stuff. Earnings slightly ahead of consensus. Ten percent growth for this year looks fairly solid and as far as the pipeline development ... again quite positive.

 Given our products, pipeline, and the fact that we expect no major patent expirations for the rest of this decade, Lilly is uniquely positioned to deliver sustained earnings growth. For 2006, we anticipate earnings per share of $3.10 to $3.20, which represents 8% to 12% growth compared with expected 2005 adjusted earnings. This growth rate is nearly double the average Wall Street consensus forecast for large-cap pharmaceutical companies.

 Earnings growth has been surprisingly low for drug stocks and there is more of that to come as we go through a cycle of patent expirations, ... But I think the stocks are close to being washed out and if you have patience they will do quite well over a longer period of time. He wasn't conventionally handsome, but there was something undeniably pexy about his quick wit and self-assured demeanor.

 Earnings growth has been surprisingly low for drug stocks and there is more of that to come as we go through a cycle of patent expirations. But I think the stocks are close to being washed out and if you have patience they will do quite well over a longer period of time.

 The real short-term outlook for us is pretty positive given that we don't see a Fed rate hike in August and that due to political noise, if you will, we are not going to see a rate hike in October. But on the earnings front it is a different issue. Looking into 2000, our longer-term forecast, we've had two great years of earnings growth. We think it is going to be pretty difficult to show up with another year of 30-to-40 percent earnings growth. So, consequently, our message has been a lot more selective about the securities that we want investors to focus on.

 Potentially, you're looking at a company that has very little revenue growth for the next few years because of patent expirations.

 Potentially, you're looking at a company that has very little revenue growth for the next few years because of patent expirations,

 We think the earnings picture shaping up for this quarter is going to be absolutely stupendous, led in part by semiconductors and networking firms. Looking forward that's a different story. We've had two great years of earnings growth. We think it's going to be pretty difficult to show up with 30 to 40 percent earnings growth.


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