Every time investors think gezegde

 Every time investors think the Fed is going to be one-and-done, they rally the market 100 points. Yesterday was no exception. The potential for an additional 25 basis points in June faded from over 50% to about 28%. That gave the market the added juice it needed to penetrate serious overhead supply.

 I think we're seeing already the start of a relief rally. Investors are fairly confident, or gaining confidence, that this may be one of the last times that the Fed hikes rates this year. Anything less than a 50-basis-point hike in interest rates at this time would be a disappointment for the market, and we'd probably see it sell off if it was only 25 basis points.

 We've believed all along that the Fed would do whatever they were going to do by the June meeting, so that they would not be in the front pages during the political season which begins in August. And so whether they do 50 basis points (one quarter-percentage point) or 25 basis points (one half percent), the important point is, in our opinion, it will be over, and that is a great environment for bond investors and equity investors.

 This market is trying to rally. If the Fed reduces interest rates by 50 basis points, it will touch off a rally, but if we get a rally it will be guarded.

 In terms of the Fed, the most favorable move from the market's point of view is if they raise interest rates by 25 basis points and keep the same language. If they raise 25 basis points and sound worried about inflation the market may get demoralized.

 This is not going to be enough - we're still looking for another 50 basis points by the end of the year, ... But it's the right move for the moment. A rise of 50 basis points would have cast doubt in the market about the sustainability of growth, in Germany in particular.

 We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.

 I think the rate cut was the worst-kept secret around. If they didn't do 50 basis points, the market would be concerned, because I think 50 basis points was in the marketplace.

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 There was too much hope built up that the Fed was going to cut by more than 50 basis points. We had a rally in anticipation of Fed action but we are in a bear market. The hopes and prayers of the bulls was totally on the shoulders of the Fed.

 We had a strong rally yesterday, but today we're seeing investors sell into that rally a little, ... We're in a trading market. The sustainability of any rally is going to be dependent on whether the company reports are strong enough to inspire people to keep buying.

 In the past three days, the market has added more than 500 points. At least 20% of the price is cream, or speculative activity. All we need is one or two negative indicators or pieces of news, and that could give investors an excuse to take profit.

 Investors are still looking for the economy to begin to pick up toward the end of this year with positive earnings comparisons occurring starting in the first or second-quarter of next year (2002). Trying to trade the market on the basis of whether the Fed is going to cut by 50 or 25 basis points, in a long-term portfolio, is not a prudent approach to investing.

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 Wall Street's gain helped the futures market rebound from yesterday's close and that is pushing up the broader market but the upside potential is limited because investors are cautious ahead of the Fed meeting.

 Yesterday's rally was based on a number of factors. There was some financial geometry in there as well. It was an options expiry day on the New York Mercantile with a rising market. That gave it a little more oomph than it needed. Now that oil's flowing, prices are coming back in line.


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


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