178 ordspråk av Alan Ackerman

Alan Ackerman

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IBM's announcement today hopefully is a harbinger of things to come. Investors need to know there's a sense of value among market leaders. IBM stepped up to the plate, and the market seemed to have rallied on the news and inspired other investors.

The data is important, but it will take a back seat to concerns about currency devaluations and recessions.

The big question making the rounds now is: How does one really judge value and are strong first-quarter earnings (expectations) already factored into technology stocks?

We may have bumped the bottom, but the question is, can we bounce back? Right now, you have a market that has no leadership, has no conviction. I believe more people will be watching the Yankees and the Mets.

I think that the wide swings in the market created a lot of pain. We have a lot of walking wounded among portfolio holders. And many institutional types decided to purge problem stocks from their portfolios as a result of the drop we saw earlier in the week. We're really in a week this week that could go in either direction, and again those four variables, the four E's, could affect that.

Clearly, confidence is being impacted by the fact that many feel the Fed has strangled the economy and inflation remains low. [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan will be in office until 2004 and, at the moment, he seems to be the man who makes or breaks the market based upon the Fed's policy.

We've seen natural gas and energy prices back down. There certainly is no indication that the inventories for oil or natural gas are building in any meaningful way. If OPEC should cut production, we're going to see a rise in oil prices.

There are fewer and fewer corporate CEOs who seem bullish on their own business.

Most of the retailers are watching their advertising dollars very carefully. This is not going to be an easy period for retailers but it could be worse. Tax refunds are certainly playing some positive role in consumer spending patterns.

We're carefully watching OPEC. The indication is that crude production, crude daily output is likely to be cut a million to a million and a half barrels.

I think for the moment the big chains are running like elephants. They tend to be behind the cheetahs and the panthers. I think they lumber along, and I think this is not necessarily the time to move. I think the turnaround isn't going to be as routine or orderly as you might expect. I'd want to stay with the strength right now.

That has helped the techs today (Wednesday). They have a reasonably upbeat forecast.

Enron's quick collapse touched off more aggressiveness by regulators and prompted them to dig more deeply into executive dealings.

We've got to be wary of the four T's: tech, telecom, terrorism and timidity. We're also in the summer stall. No one is eager to move in. There's a real lack of conviction.

This market is somewhat difficult to call.

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