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Bart Melek

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Warmer-than-expected fall weather and high prices have reduced energy demand in the western hemisphere, allowing inventories to rebuild, even as production is significantly below capacity.

Recent oil and fuel inventory trends are clearly demonstrating that the oil industry is no longer in crisis mode and that energy prices are likely to continue to soften.

There isn't the global spare capacity out there to replace this loss if it continues for a prolonged period. Already the market is tight as a drum, and if anything else happens, say instability in the Middle East, I wouldn't preclude $100 oil at all.

If this situation spins out of control and Iran is placed under a sanctions regime or is forcibly made to end its nuclear program, we expect oil prices to surge to new highs.

North American natural gas is dependent on what happens in North America.

While [Wednesday's] starts data may exaggerate the strength of the sector, it is quite obvious housing retains considerable momentum.

The labor market seems to be fairly robust. Strong employment means income growth, and that means people have more money in their pocket.

While fuel and oil inventories are still healthy, any reduction in US supplies means that more needs to be imported from abroad, including the Middle East.

The market is speculating that slower growth in China, sufficient commodity supplies in the U.S. and moderating U.S. growth may mean that the recent run-up in commodity prices is overdone and that we are due for a correction in the not-too-distant future.

We can expect the West to reply, even including the possibility of force, raising the temperature in the oil market again over the next several days and weeks, likely lifting prices higher.

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