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Gina Martin

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Consumers are experiencing very strong income gains and that's helping them deal with these gas prices a little better. It's providing quite a cushion.

Economists all realize this number is not a big deal, but people will be trading on the number this week whether it's a big deal or not.

The underlying labor market is probably about the same, with claims in the 300,000 to 320,000 range and job creation of 180,000 to 200,000 a month.

An uncertain election will do that -- people don't know who the president will be, what's ahead.

Core prices are at a little higher pace than the Fed is comfortable with, but they're certainly not out of bounds, and the interest rate increases over the past year and a half have kept inflation relatively low.

Single family housing starts, which correlate closely with changes in average mortgage rates, remain robust for now, ... We should start to see this series moderate in future months as higher mortgage rates keep a lid on borrower interest. However, mortgage rates have plenty of room to move before they even reach pre-recession levels. As a result, we may not see a slowdown in housing construction until the autumn months of this year.

Some companies have pulled ahead [of] spending, at least on the short term, ... That could help the fourth quarter number. I think the fourth quarter might surprise us on the upside, coming in somewhere between 3.6 percent and 4.0 percent growth. But we've got a general slowdown coming -- we're forecasting 3.2 percent growth for all of 2005.

Some companies have pulled ahead [of] spending, at least on the short term. That could help the fourth quarter number. I think the fourth quarter might surprise us on the upside, coming in somewhere between 3.6 percent and 4.0 percent growth. But we've got a general slowdown coming -- we're forecasting 3.2 percent growth for all of 2005.

Consumers have access to cash. They took out a record $804 billion in mortgage equity withdrawals in the third quarter.

It's not a coincidence that commodities prices are increasing simultaneously with capacity utilization.

The biggest item affecting trading next week will be the consumer price index, because everybody wants to determine how far the Fed will go. And the forward forecasts of the retailers are worth watching as well, because consumers are going to face greater constraints this year due to higher interest rates and a slowing housing market.

It's going to be a big week for economic data, but a lot of it will be compromised by so-called seasonal adjustments. The warm weather in January may cause some unforeseen swings in the data, making it look rosier than it would have been otherwise, and that could cause some volatility in the markets as well.

Measures of consumer perceptions should be watched carefully for large and drastic moves, but the analyst who relies on small moves for an indication of consumer purchasing behavior is likely to get burned.

We're consistently breaking records with this report, and just about every month is bigger than expected, so I don't think there's any great change to the story.

It's not a bad number.

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