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62 ordspråk av Joshua Shapiro

Joshua Shapiro

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[Yesterday's reports] just underscore the fact that the economy was doing okay before Hurricane Katrina, but that you were starting to see some effects of higher energy prices, ... Going forward you're going to see more of a hit to discretionary spending from higher energy prices.

I don't think we're talking about a recession or a near recession. I think we're talking about growth that is slower than people expected.

In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.

While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.

Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.

It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,

An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.

Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.

While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.

They are basically saying what every Fed official who has opened his mouth in the last month has said, ... The Fed is going to continue to nudge short-term interest rates, unless something disastrous happens.

If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.

The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.

They are being as clear as they possibly can be about raising rates in December without knowing what the data will be in the next month,

It was 25 basis points, everyone knew that, and so there's virtually no stock market reaction,

It was a good solid number, maybe not as high as some people were hoping, and not as bad as bonds had feared,

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