63 ordspråk av Kyle Cooper

Kyle Cooper

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Iran is driving it today, throwing jitters into the market. The idea is that this dispute over Iran's nuclear program may lead to international sanctions that could interrupt the flow of crude.

U.S. weather is turning less bearish. Bullish sentiment is still firmly in place and further price advances are possible, despite bearish current fundamentals.

Quite simply, the strong Pacific flow is continuing to inhibit any major intrusions of Arctic air into the lower 48. The winter is rapidly coming to an end for all practical purposes.

Supplies are ample across the board. We were able to increase product supplies even with refineries running at around 86 percent, which isn't a good sign for the bulls.

Prices are much higher on fear of possible further supply disruptions. Continued concern about the Iranian situation and new threats in Nigeria and primary drivers. There were no new reported attacks in Nigeria, just more threats.

This is a financial, fear-driven market. It is not fundamental, nor has it been since early 2003, when prices and inventories began rising in tandem. It takes very little for prices to rise.

There's plenty of supply. Crude oil supplies are above 320 million barrels, which is ample to meet demand from refiners.

We've lost 450,000 barrels a day of production, which is significant. Shell hasn't given us much of an idea of when they will be able to restore output. This is a pretty reasonable reaction given that we don't know how long it will be before the production is back to normal.

We are rebounding a bit but this is still a bearish market. There is a little talk that OPEC may announce a cut. I don't know how likely that is, but the fall in prices might prompt some action.

There is a little talk that OPEC may announce a cut. I don't know how likely that is, but the fall in prices might prompt some action.

This certainly highlights what the bulls have been trumpeting. It is not known whether any actual production will be affected. Uncertainty and fear abound in this market.

Uncertainty and fear abound in this market, and thus outright short positions remain highly at risk.

Rising inventories are keeping a lid on prices. Inventories are back at levels we last saw in 1999, but the price is still a couple times higher. The market has been remarkably resilient because there are fears of supply disruptions.

Gasoline inventories are tighter than they were a few weeks ago. It's all about perception, because inventories are well above where they have been in previous years.

Inventories are actually still 7 million barrels above the three-year average. Once these refineries start cranking back up, I think you'll see supplies rise pretty quickly.

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