33 ordspråk av Lacy Hunt

Lacy Hunt

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As a stimulus proposal, it's a non-starter. The economic impact is very, very small -- almost imperceptible.

It was not used this time, even though it was debated in Fed circles -- Greenspan opposed it.

The net effect was to induce a tightening mode in the markets, in bank lending and in total bank reserve growth, while [interest rates] rose significantly, especially for corporate bond issues. In retrospect, that's not looking very smart.

The Fed was given control of margin lending in response to the excess speculation in the 1920s,

The corporate sector is highly leveraged, unprofitable and has excess capacity. Those are not the ingredients to produce a great deal of growth.

The problem is, the private sector doesn't have the balance sheet capacity to take on more debt, and the banking system is not in a position to extend more credit. So monetary policy may not work at all.

The Fed has made a statement here that they are not going to allow higher energy costs to translate into inflation.

Powerful restraining forces are impacting the consumer, and this will result in slower growth in the latter part of this year and into 2005,

This economy is not producing jobs in a normal way. We have serious global competitive pressures working on the economy. There continues to be a very rapid increase in productivity, which is undermining demand for labor.

When you have a large debt buildup and a lot of excess capacity, that's not corrected very quickly,

To have an effective monetary policy, you have to have a robust borrowing and lending cycle, ... The problem is that households and businesses are both overextended, while banks have problems with their current loan base. So we don't have a viable borrowing and lending cycle, which means that monetary policy is not working effectively.

The ratio of corporate debt to gross domestic product (GDP) is at an all-time high, ... And we don't know exactly what corporate debt is because so much has been parked off the balance sheet and hidden. But, even without knowing what the off-balance-sheet debt is, corporations have too much.

When we came out of the recession in March of 1991, GDP started rising very feebly, while the unemployment rate continued rising for another year and a half, ... The press called it a 'jobless recovery,' and it was one of the reasons [President Bill] Clinton was able to defeat former President [George] Bush. The average person on the street judges the economy by the job market.

When [consumers] shift their income stream from purchases to saving, it slows GDP, and that's a long-term process, ... I think interest rates are going to remain very low for a couple of years.

This isn't going to be settled overnight, ... In New York, there will be debris removal and shoring up subway lines, but not massive reconstruction. People will use up the extra space available in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. That doesn't mean they're going to be building new buildings.

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