14 ordspråk av Paul Meeks

Paul Meeks

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I'm revising my outlook now. I'm thinking hopefully we're through the worst.

I think we have to get through this period that we're in right now. Companies that don't prerelease will make the numbers. Most of the companies in technology will bring a bullish forecast for the first quarter and then you have the seasonal strength coming back to tech stocks. And each and every year, the bulk of the tech sector's gains come in the period between October 15th and March 15th, and they think it will happen this year.

We've had a massive revaluation of high-P/E stocks that may have sterling fundamentals, but people say 'I am not going to pay those prices anymore.' So, they might be more willing to pay for stories that are clean but that also have a valuation basis.

I do think we're on the cusp of -- at long last, mind you -- a nice PC cycle. Compaq actually posted a pretty good quarter last quarter. And even if they don't merge with HP, I think this company under $10 has some nice stand-alone value.

The bottom line on these conference calls is that the outlook is not going to be rosy.

If you're a long-term investor, do you really want the same amount of money in Microsoft and (tractor maker) Caterpillar?

I've been light on personal computer stocks for some time because of the secular trend which I think is negative towards the PC vendors. I believe units will continue to grow worldwide at about 15 percent per year, but average selling prices, now with the advent of the $200 and $300 box, are stopping like stones, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

If you fast forward your clocks to Dec. 31 of this year, you're going to have yet another year in which the Nasdaq, driven by technology stocks, is going to outperform the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average.

I really do believe that investors have to have a diversified approach. It will be very tough to pick stocks unless you have a big amount of money in your personal account so you can diversify on your own. So I would think you'd pick the premier technology funds and I'm not trying to sell myself, but I do think that it helps. And I also think that you need to have tech in your portfolio. Tech right now is about 30 percent of the weight of the S&P 500. I think investors are going to put themselves at substantial risk if they get too carried away with some of the companies and have too much in their portfolio. The appropriate weight in your portfolio is 30 percent, which is neutral the benchmark.

We're in a skittish market and the last thing you want to do is surprise investors.

Storage has been a very strong market and this company is definitely a leader.

We don't know when (that revival will be) and that makes it very worrisome.

Well, everybody knows I used to work there, so I think I know the company pretty well. I also have stock and options from my days as an employee.

It has very steady results. They are one of the leaders in software for engineering simulation where an engineering designs a product, wants to see when they actually go to prototype if it is going to work. They have very consistent results and I actually think when they report their quarter in the next week or two, it'll be an upside surprise.

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