35 ordspråk av Peter Kretzmer

Peter Kretzmer

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As vehicle sales decline toward longer run levels beginning in August, consumer spending will slow.

The numbers are a little better than we expected. Still, these things bounce around, and I think we'll probably see the unemployment figure break 4.5 percent next month.

The thinking that has surprised us has been that the markets and the Fed have been more concerned about the impact on inflation expectations than they've been about real growth.

The huge U.S. trade deficit may finally be stabilizing.

The economy will grow faster in the first quarter. Consumer spending is recovering.

The overall weaker GDP number coming from the trade data does give you a more bullish feeling on Treasuries,

My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent,

It is a strong number. There is little sign of a slowdown,

If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast,

The main point is that when they sit down, they will conclude that what we want to do is to continue to remove the accommodative policy,

We don't know if there is any meaning to the slowdown in these other categories. I wouldn't be too worried about it,

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter, ... However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

We don't know if there is any meaning to the slowdown in these other categories. I wouldn't be too worried about it.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter. However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast.

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