286 ordspråk av Hugh Johnson

Hugh Johnson

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The rise in oil prices and concern over the Fed's interest rate policy are very troubling to the market, ... That's going to present a challenge to this rally.

Long-term interest rates are low and I'd prefer to buy when rates are higher and more attractive. As a federal government issuer or taxpayer, I'd be excited but, as an investor, I just don't see the appeal.

The gains in those sectors is very good news. Investors are buying into riskier areas and it shows they're more optimistic about the economy and earnings.

The ISM report was good news in two ways. There's a big difference between contraction and a slowdown; and the number still showed expansion.

One of the most important factors driving bonds, clearly, and stocks, less clearly, is the expectation that the euro will fall further. It is attracting capital from European markets to the U.S.

It's a reasonably accepted conclusion that the Fed will raise rates in both June and August; that's what the market has discounted. I don't know if Friday's employment report will change that, no matter what it says.

The market does have a valuation problem. But I don't put much stock in any valuation model, including my own. It's very rational -- it tells you when the stock market is overvalued or undervalued -- but it doesn't work.

Yesterday's weak ISM number shows the manufacturing sector is just limping along. Another report this week suggests that Friday's August employment report may not be very good. Worries about the economy resurface and are reflected in stocks.

We might get blindsided by some (hedge fund) announcement that nobody's anticipating. You worry about another big bolt out of the blue.

Technology stocks have been leaders for good reason. The economy is growing 3.5 percent per year, while spending on information-processing equipment is growing 19.1 percent a year, after inflation. And spending on computers and peripherals is growing at a 41.1-percent rate. Technology is reflecting what lies ahead for the economy.

If you get that configuration, particularly liquidity conditions, usually you can bet pretty heavily that this is going to be a bull market.

Merck reminds us that this is about earnings.

When you see buying in that (technology) sector in a bear market, it implies that there are investors out there who see improvement around the corner, and it's usually technology and cyclical stocks that lead the market out of a downtrend. The bias towards Friday's data may be that the data will be consistent with the view that the economy is showing some expansion.

Sometime managements are the ones that make the mistake and think they're the ones that are going to survive. They have no perspective and don't understand that sooner or later they're going to go away.

The question coming out of the meeting is, is [the dollar's slide] going to continue and will foreign investors start pulling out of stocks and bonds because of the weak dollar. Most people don't think this will happen, but the G7 meeting raised that concern a little.

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