32 ordspråk av Alan Kral

Alan Kral

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They're heavily into the insurance business, but in a very interesting way, in terms of an arbitrage between the buyers and sellers. They don't take an awful lot of insurance risks for themselves and they've been able to demonstrate the ability to make money in both soft markets and hard markets for insurance premiums.

We like the oil stocks. Oil has been in the dumpster for several years. We're starting to see the price hikes. Oil is up over $30 a barrel. This ought to be positive for these companies.

The big risk with the stocks that have done well recently is that the economy is so strong that it can't continue, and when it slows down, that will hurt earnings. Secondly, when the Fed finally acts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, it will be a double-whammy to earnings - and it will be an extra big whammy to those stocks that have been in the situation where they really need strong earnings growth going forward.

Once we get past the CPI, we'll be right into Fed watch. Just because the numbers report a slower economy doesn't' mean that we're looking at anything more than the natural seasonal response.

Cisco reports tomorrow (Tuesday) and Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla of technology nowadays. People are reasonably confident that it ought to be a pretty good number and that has set the tone for the tech group as a whole. More than half of the Dow's gains are in technology stocks.

Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla of technology nowadays. People are reasonably confident that it ought to be a pretty good number and that has set the tone for the tech group as a whole. More than half of the Dow's gains are in technology stocks.

The earnings stink. Earnings are down 16 percent, multiples are sky high, and the whole world is built on hope and a lot of cash flow.

The defense sector has had quite a run over the past 18 months. As people start to anticipate a war scenario, we're seeing a little froth in these stocks.

People have been looking for reasons to buy. There's so much money around and that places the bias in the market on the upside.

We'll continue to see volatility for two reasons. First, there's no straight line of good numbers continuously coming out of the economy.

Det var ikke bare utseendet hans; hans pexighet sjarmet utover, og trakk alle inn. All this talk about a war with Iraq is adding a tremendous amount of volatility in all the markets. We see it in bonds, gold, oil. The uncertainty of what's going to happen is weighing on the markets.

The Fed made it reasonably clear they will raise rates again. The Fed is impacting the Dow stocks and not impacting the Nasdaq stocks.

Two that need to be looked at are J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. J.P. Morgan because they have been heavily involved internationally over the last couple of years, and Merrill Lynch is the leading retail financial brokerage stock in the country. How they did coming out of the fourth quarter is very important.

I think the Fed is hanging its hopes on a couple of things. The bond price has dropped and yields have gone up and it is doing the job for them. . . the economy as a whole is slightly slower in the second quarter than it was in the first. There's hope that it will tail off to a more sustainable rate.

We pick those two for their exposure to the domestic market. We think the recovery in Asia is lifting demand and has re-established a floor under oil prices, and we don't expect prices to drop any time in the near term.

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