26 ordspråk av Alan Oster

Alan Oster

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The deterioration in agribusiness contrasts starkly with the ongoing strength in the non-farm business sector as a whole.

The story is one of continuing boom conditions in mining and very strong nonresidential construction activity. The Reserve Bank is still very much on hold, watching both the inflation outlook and domestic demand.

There was continuing strength in mining, equipment manufacturing, nonresidential construction and utilities. Against that, residential construction, parts of agriculture and both wholesale and retail report poor and falling business conditions.

Businesses continue to look at the future with some skepticism. Companies again report weaker employment outcomes in December, while capital spending also weakened somewhat. The official cash rate is even more firmly on hold for the foreseeable future.

While the Australian economy continues to report sub-trend growth, the December results reinforce the point that it is still performing reasonably well. Conditions improved in December, driven by stronger-than-expected trading and profitability.

Overall, the message you come back [with] is, business conditions, activity, was pretty good, although there's still doubts about whether this is going to continue for a long time.

Confidence has been getting weaker for some months and trading conditions have weakened a bit in the latest survey. They could weaken more in the short term, but when you look at the medium term, companies are still quite optimistic.

The Reserve Bank will continue to monitor higher short-term inflation risks from oil against slowing economic activity. While the bank might engage in occasional bouts of jawboning, we see little prospect of rates moving in either direction for some considerable period.

While the RBA might engage in occasional bouts of jawboning, we see little prospect of the RBA moving in either direction for some considerable period. That, indeed, was the main message out of yesterday's monetary policy statement.

Business concerns about the potential for a sharp fall in future activity have continued to ease.

Despite improvements in confidence and still reasonable sales, the results suggest that business is still reluctant to increase hiring.

Against that, cost pressures and more specifically oil prices remain a concern, as does the availability of suitable labor.

On the other hand, export volumes benefit from increased capacity and a lower Australian dollar partly offset by some moderation, but sustained trading partner growth during 2006-2007.

In summary, the survey points to a significant pick-up in economic growth in the first quarter of 2006.

On transport, it is one of the few sectors that has continued to deteriorate through the quarter, no doubt reflecting the impact of higher oil prices on costs and profitability.

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