24 ordspråk av Alfred Kugel

Alfred Kugel

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Since we don't have a lot of economic data, the most important will be durable goods.

The market has done pretty well this week. I think the fund managers that took a more cautious stance after Hurricane Katrina may be doing a little buying now, but it's a quiet day.

Some of the things that worried people, that the economy was slowing too much, that inflation was rising too much, have been assuaged here by the numbers we got this morning.

Unemployment claims were OK. I suspect we're still in for low volatility sliding up to the close tomorrow. I don't expect any big moves in either direction. That's disappointing, given that the week between Christmas and New Year's is what we call the Santa Claus rally, and so far all we've gotten is a lump of coal.

This changed the whole psychology of the market from one of disappointment to one of optimism.

Now it looks like the Fed might raise rates at the January meeting, and that might be it.

Inflation seems very unlikely to me in the current economic environment. We have huge amounts of production capacity and plenty of labor around the world, especially in China and India.

There's a lot of bad news priced into the market, ... If things turn out not to be as bad as discounted, we will have a rally this summer, and we will end the year 10 percent higher than we are now.

I would guess this will be another weak report and that, I think, will keep the Fed on its path of easing, ... In a perverse way, the market will like it because they'll think the Fed will make another cut at the next FOMC meeting.

We've now changed the valuation of the stock market quite a bit, ... If anything, the earnings estimates have been going up and stocks have been going down. The price-to-earnings ratio on forward earnings is now down to about 15 times, which is very low relative to interest rates and inflation at the present time.

I would guess this will be another weak report and that, I think, will keep the Fed on its path of easing. In a perverse way, the market will like it because they'll think the Fed will make another cut at the next FOMC meeting.

There's a lot of bad news priced into the market. If things turn out not to be as bad as discounted, we will have a rally this summer, and we will end the year 10 percent higher than we are now.

People were worried the financial companies wouldn't have a strong earnings trend because of the flat yield curve, but now it's been flat for a while, and the earnings are still coming through.

Generally the market will tend to go in the opposite direction of oil prices and sometimes oil shares, but that didn't happen today yet.

Earnings are coming in 'in line' with expectations. We should still be up 15 percent year-over-year and that's better than we did in the first half.

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