61 ordspråk av Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf Laidi

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This speech is not going to change anybody's mind that the Fed will raise interest rates next week. But it leaves up in the air what the Fed will do at its next meeting in May.

It's good for the U.S. to see a relatively weaker dollar, but it's not a good idea for the U.S. Treasury to signal it wants a weaker dollar. The decline in the U.S. currency could be faster than they wish.

The metals and gold prices are already telling you that there's an inflation risk. So if they're going to push the dollar weaker, the risk of inflation could be sparked even higher if the dollar falls and oil prices remain at the level they're right now.

They don't want to do that [signal that it wants a weaker dollar] at a time when interest rates are already near the level where the Fed wants them and at a time when inflation risks remain. The Fed will be unable to push interest rates much much higher when the U.S housing sector has already begun to slow down.

This story is important because I don't think we are going to have a lame duck secretary at a time when the president of the fastest growing nation in the world is coming here and when the forefront of relations between China and the US is on finance issues.

That would really hurt the U.S. housing market, which is already slowing. It would hurt the U.S. economy and would hurt the rest of the world's economies.

It's all about anticipation,

Today's disappointing labor report supports the notion that the emerging soft patch in the U.S. economy is here to stay.

With our trading partners slowing down, they're not going to demand a lot of exports from us.

This last comment is crucial, especially when the U.S. Congress last night rejected restrictions on tax cuts and spending, and raised the federal debt limit by $800 billion, to $8.18 trillion.

This does not mean that currency markets have completely eliminated all concerns about the trade deficit when assessing the dollar,

Today's trade figures are a stark reminder to the structural deficiencies of the U.S. economy and the reason for our negative dollar outlook for the year despite (its) recent bounce.

Given the declining trend in net foreign purchases of the past five months, we doubt whether these would be sufficient in covering the $55.8 billion trade deficit, ... In that case, markets should expect intensifying damage for the dollar.

Japan is really the industrialized country most heavily dependent on oil imports, ... so the most direct impact of higher oil prices is on the Japanese yen.

The consensus among currency traders for a continuing weakening of the dollar is overwhelming.

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