27 ordspråk av Avery Shenfeld

Avery Shenfeld

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It's pretty clear after (stronger than expected) third quarter GDP numbers they are going to hike in December, and the odds of a hike in January are rising, but they could still take a pause in January if core inflation doesn't heat up,

In Canada, CPI inflation will be everywhere in energy, and nowhere in anything else, mirroring what we saw in the U.S. figures for September,

August's 169,000 jobs gain, coupled with a 44,000 upward revision to the prior two months, left payroll employment just about where the market expected.

In Canada, CPI inflation will be everywhere in energy, and nowhere in anything else, mirroring what we saw in the U.S. figures for September.

Whenever you have a situation where inflation is not a material risk and the economy is underperforming, you should be thinking about a rate cut. There's a potential reward and not much risk.

The warning bells are starting to ring, that the drag on manufacturing from the Canadian dollar . . . is starting to show through, now that the U.S. economy is starting to slow.

All told, a fairly strong reading that will only buttress the Bank of Canada's case for remaining hawkish.

It's now evident that the US economy is headed for a very brisk first-quarter [growth] pace, with our above-consensus 4.8 percent real GDP forecast looking, if anything, too conservative.

If markets felt the Bank of Canada was going to press on with rate hikes after the Fed stopped, that could fuel an overheated Canadian dollar, providing too much of a braking force on exports.

Central banks continue to be guided by macroeconomic models that relate to an economy that no longer exists.

The Federal Reserve will look past the see-saw numbers on things like orders and look at the broader trend, which is still for a fairly strong first-quarter economic performance.

Look for the Fed to leave its poker-face statement unchanged.

Although financial markets have confidently priced-in a May rate hike, low core inflation implies that the case for risking growth by pushing rates higher is far from clear. If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.

If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.

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