58 ordspråk av Barclays Capital

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The markets seem to be pricing in close to zero probability of something going wrong.

The recent move above $1,000 is mostly driven by speculative buying.

The dichotomy in the US market between tight products and flush crude has become more pronounced.

U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen further below their five-year average, while U.S. oil demand remains strong. Our estimates of current market balances indicate a significant tightening relative to a year ago.

The continued strong performance of commodity investments, allied to the desire of many institutional investors to diversify their equity and fixed income exposures, suggests that commodity investments are likely to continue growing strongly in 2006.

While strikes in Chile rarely tend to last for very long, any disruption to production or shipments will lend support to copper prices given the strong demand environment and lack of spare material.

Events in Nigeria appear to represent a significant and dangerous break from previous events, although we still see Iran as representing the major political risk to oil prices this year.

After the very strong pick-up in U.S. growth data over the past few weeks, we believe the risk of a sharp slowdown in commodity demand looks negligible in the short term.

After the very strong pickup in U.S. growth data over the past few weeks, we believe the risk of a sharp slowdown in commodity demand looks negligible in the short term.

The presence of significant headline risk, most particularly from Iran's international relations, the Atlantic hurricane season and from tightness in refining, is continuing to support prices at higher levels.

Unless upcoming speeches indicate that other FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members are beginning to shift their views, we do not believe Olson's dissent represents the start of a broader movement within the FOMC toward slowing the pace of rate hikes.

What is clear is that despite OPEC's extremely high current output levels there is little sign of a large surplus forming in the market just yet.

The faltering uptrend...warns of choppy times ahead. However, we do not think we have seen the peak for oil and while prices remains supported above $56.50 we are targeting $75 later in the year.

We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.

Under the microscope it is clear that an important watershed is approaching. The short-term downtrend is about to come into conflict with the medium-term uptrend. Typically we would side with the longer-term move but the length of the downtrend from the high is a major cautionary note.

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