86 ordspråk av Bill Sullivan

Bill Sullivan

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In many respects, the Fed is a bit player when it comes to the overall outlook. We're dealing with issues of confidence.

It's almost absurd to think you can replace the World Series as an economic event. In no way does it put the economy at risk of double-dip recession, but I believe the economy loses.

Obviously, we're going to be dealing with thin markets. The influence of the holiday should dampen the war rhetoric, but if there are any surprises we could get exaggerated moves in prices for sure.

The markets pretty well anticipated the context of President Bush's proposals. The euphoria is over and now the cold reality of Washington politics will dominate.

Eliminating the dividend tax is an extraordinarily controversial measure -- even Republican support may not be as deep as assumed.

We're trying to put a bright picture on the State of the Union address. We're well above the losses we saw several hours ago.

It does not seem as though this will be an Adlai Stevenson moment. I think a lot of his evidence may be open to wide interpretation. Unless there's a huge surprise, it doesn't seem that the evidence provided will turn global opinion against Saddam.

There's no doubt that there's going to be a snapback. The real issue is whether the snapback is representative of substantial and permanent change.

The data will look better, but it's going to be very difficult to distinguish whether it represents real change.

Business firms are still unwilling to take advantage of this low rate structure. The failure to borrow could be a hint that business planners do not foresee a significant resurgence in the economy over the quarters to come.

Even though the rising pattern in borrowing costs is a form of restraint, it is being offset by a surge in equity wealth as the stock market records consistent gains.

400,000 is perceived as representing the dividing point between contraction and stability in the labor market, but really it's an arbitrary line in the sand. It's not unlike big, round numbers in the Dow Jones -- it doesn't have any significance the fact that it captures your attention.

Typically, at the present stage of an economic rebound -- roughly two years after the trough in economic activity had been reached -- corporations are borrowing aggressively, funding capital expansion projects, payroll additions and inventory accumulations,

The lack of such short-term borrowing thus far in the current cycle seemingly contradicts the notion that a brisk expansion is under way.

It's very clear that September was a month of continued vigor for the economy. But consumption wasn't as vibrant as in July and August.

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