51 ordspråk av Cary Leahey

Cary Leahey

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Economists have to worry that if consumer sentiment remains depressed, spending could follow that down and you could have a much weaker outcome (in terms of economic growth.

A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now.

The important thing is not whether the Fed can ease but the fact that people can even ask that question and some intelligent people say if the Fed raises rates in September, it would be a public relations disaster.

I don't see anything in the speech that is relevant to the near-term outlook.

If your period of turbulence is less than two or three months, ... then we can probably avoid a downturn.

There isn't much excitement in the July factory orders numbers. July is payback for a pretty good June and May but any way you slice it, your third-quarter capital spending slowed down quite a bit from previous quarters.

The bond market doesn't really care about the payrolls data now because you're even getting the crazy question asked about whether the Fed can ease.

The Fed might skip (raising rates in) September -- but you have to remember that how the world looks today and how it looks on September 20 could be a lot different -- a lot worse or a lot better.

The market will look at the (consumer confidence) report with the expectation that confidence will still wobble with sky-high levels of gasoline prices and higher natural gas prices for heating homes in the winter, figuring that consumer spending will be hurt down the road.

This is fairly strong stuff from the Fed. They are worried about the size of Treasury deficits and how that contributes to higher rates down the road.

It's a dismal report. Unnerving. Is this the beginning of a one-two-three punch?

The economy hit a brick wall in February and March. The risk of a recession is higher now than I thought it would have been six months ago. It's higher now than I thought it would have been six weeks ago.

Ten years from now, they might both become first-tier numbers. But I doubt it.

The increase in orders is particularly welcome. The bond market may like the fact that the prices paid component dropped 11 points, reversing most of the big gain in November. Analysts are banking on strength in manufacturing next year to offset some of the expected weakness in housing related consumer demand.

Bond prices rose because the market was excited at the idea that the number of further rate hikes needed would not necessarily be large. The market is thinking that the Fed has two more rate hikes to go.

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